A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. They composes two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually lose but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
